I don't think the forum based website is dead. I think there's a lot now that must go into sites that people aren't aware of. Long past are the days of just throwing up a forum, getting some links, and people will post. I too am experiencing a sort of downtime as it might seem. I notice less people are visiting, less posts per day, and lack of registration.
Of course I think it's the content of my site, time of year, and the fact that there's always ups and downs. Right now I'm using this 'downtime' to reinvent my site. Complete restyling, targeted landing pages, additional content, and crap like screensavers, e-books, podcasting, etc... will always make people comeback for more.
I think the forums that survive thru downtimes won't be the vbulletins, SMF, IPB's, etc... but the owners who can create content, learn SEO, and successfully evolve with the changing internet.
Web 2.0, CSS, AJAX, etc... are great, but content is king. It's the combination of content and user interaction that will separate the good, bad, and ugly.
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