Tracking a problem that doesn't happen all the time would be very difficult.
However - for the new posts - do you have some forums that are not visible to all users (such as staff forums) - if so then the new posts shown are probably in areas that the member does not have access to - most new posts code does not take this into account. This was a problem on our forum so I updated our new posts hack to only count those that a member had permission to view (not available in the released version atm).
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