I don't think it matters what size monitor it is. It could be a 32" monitor, but if the resolution is 800x600, it's the same on every monitor.
Amazingly, a lot of people don't maximize their browsers... especially the AOLers. AOL, by default, opens the browser in a little window. Probably to keep you in their own little world so you never forget you are in AOL.
My feeling though, from a design viewpoint is, that it's not going to matter much. Those people are used to seeing most websites like that. Think of the WebTV users. They don't even have a concept of what the sites are really supposed to look like.
If the horizontal scroll concerns you, check all of your table settings, and the size of your graphics. Those will decide the absolute width of the page.
If all the tables are set to 100%. but the graphics, when lined up, equal more than '800', you're gonna get scroll.