From my clients forum, this is my understanding on how forums die/evolve.
Initially people open new forums for the hype of being an admin, if it goes well and if at all they make any income they continue to maintain their forum. I've seen people running forums even for a very close user group, just for the joy of maintaining a forum. If the activity of their forum drops down or if they lose interest they shut down their site.
Only focused people know what they are doing and still continue to maintain their forums & overcome the obstacles of social networks in a very smart way.
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