It's probably the attachments, but if you have phpMyAdmin you can go to the list of tables and sort them by size (by clicking on the 'size' column), then if you see any other tables that are large and it's not obvious what it is, it would give you something to look in to.
Also if you move attachments to the file system, that's something that you'd have to back up separately. If you lost everything you could download the vb files and restore your database, but if you didn't have a backup of the attachments and avatars files they would be lost.
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