IMHO: You're over-thinking the whole thing. Assuming there are no custom styles or modifications on your current site that aren't available in vb4, then just backup and upgrade.
Personally, I went a step farther and uninstalled all my vb3 mods as I figured they wouldn't work anyway. But forget all the stuff about a test site. When you go live you'll have bugs that just wouldn't have ever showed up on a test site anyway.
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