If you look at newreply.php around line 110, there's the newreply_start hook location, and right after that it does some permission checks and prints error messages. So if you create a plugin using that hook location and do you own checks, I think you should be able to do whatever you want for an error message. Same with newthread.php (the but hook is newthread_start).
So for instance you could make a plugin using newreply_start and do something like:
PHP Code:
if ($threadinfo['forumid'] == x
AND is_member_of($vbulletin->userinfo, 1))
{
eval(standard_error(fetch_error('customerror')));
}
where 'customerror' is a custom phrase you created (that you can name whatever you want, of course).
ETA: You'd also need a second plugin using newthread_start to handle new threads. The code should be the same, except using $foruminfo['forumid'] in place of $threadinfo['forumid'].