I couldn't imagine this working without using the URL... who's to say what was the 200,000th post if you delete several spam posts right after you hit 200,000- then you'll be back below 200,000.
I just checked my board... we're reporting about 865,000 posts and our URL is up to about 880,000... the difference is because posts have been deleted over the years. If you stop deleting more posts from here on out you can use simple arithmetic to find out what URL will correspond to post 200,000 and set a conditional in showthread or something "if" post # 399,999 or whatver then display some extra text saying like "200,000th Post!"
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