There is no exact science. I see forums with only 10 active members and they grow big in less in then 3 years. And then I see forums with thousands that sign up each month with 0 activity from users. If I agree on something is that it takes time but there has also have to be a small community of at least 3 users that share together real things, other people will see this interesting and will join them but nobody wants to share in an empty forum or with topics of no value.
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