Registered Users is the group that all users end up in after registration (or after confirming their email). Are you sure there are any users sitting in the COPPA group? If you aren't going to use the groups for their intended purpose, then you should create a new usergroup (you may duplicate the permissions).
That being said, the Promotions run on active users. So, a user must come online after they reach that promotion limit and then the promotion scheduled task will run and move them.
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