You shouldn't assume that the first section of IP address will not change because most of the larger ISPs have IP allocations in completely different blocks. For example the US cable co roadrunner could dynamically allocate you a 24.x or a 65.x another example is aol where you could get 152.x or a 205.x or 172.x etc....
Secondly if the isp or the person browsing is using a proxy there is always the risk of recording the proxy address not the actual users address. In theory all proxies should forward the user ip but in reality many don't including some "transparent" proxies used by ISPs.
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