Cron jobs in vbulletin aren't "true" cron jobs in the sense that they must be initiated by a pageload in your forums which contains the cron.gif image. Most every page contains thiw within the footer template. Is it possible that your forum isn't busy enough (very few page requests) which mght cause cron.gif to not be called?
try changing the time for one of your cron jobs to 5 minutes ahead, then wait 10 minutes and check your cronlog. If it doesn't show as having run, then go to your forums and refresh the main page or threadvier (whatever) then wait another couple minutes and check your cronlog again. Did it run now?
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