That's because you're setting their post count to 10 rather than comparing it. If you want to show it only when they have exactly 10 posts you need to use == like so:
<if condition="$vbulletin->userinfo['posts'] == 10">
However if you want to show only if they have more than 10 posts you need to use > like so:
<if condition="$vbulletin->userinfo['posts'] > 10">
..and to show only if they have less than 10 posts you use < like so:
<if condition="$vbulletin->userinfo['posts'] < 10">
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