Ted...
The problem seems to affect only users who are marked as Invisible. If you will note, when you are marked as invisible, the forum indicates your last activity date as whatever date it was when you were last VISIBLE. Apparently your code calcuates the most recent posts based off of the value that the forum stores as your last date of activity.
To test this theory, I turned Invisible mode OFF for my account and went into the Admin CP and ran the "Update User Ranks and Titles" maintenance routine. As soon as the update finished, the welcome header stating that I hadn't posted recently went away.
You might want to look into this.
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